What a difference a day makes -- New oil trajectory predictions show movement toward and continued threat to AL, MI and FL

Predictions are simply estimations made with (one hopes) best professional judgment based on data available at the time the predictions are made. When the data change, predictions must also change. Yesterday, oil spill trajectories showed the spill gathered in a tight group around the drill site. Today, those trajectories once again show the imminent threat to the Mississippi delta and the shores of LA, AL, and MI. In addition, offshore trajectories predict far-ranging transport of oil to the south and east towards Florida as the spill enters the Gulf loop currents.

Surface Oil Trajectory Prediction for Mississippi Canyon, May 19 - showing renewed threat to LA, MI, AL, and FL

Offshore Surface Oil Forecast for May 19 showing effect of oil entering Gulf Loop currents

Loop Current
Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator, spoke today at a press briefing on the subject of the Loop current. Dr. Lubchenco's remarks are summarized below:

• The Loop Current is an area of warm water that comes up from the Caribbean, flowing past the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it generally curves east across the Gulf and then flows south parallel to the west coast of Florida. As it flows between Florida and Cuba it becomes the Florida Current which moves through the Florida Straits, where it finally joins the Gulf Stream to travel up the Atlantic Coast.
• Both the location of the Loop Current and location of the oil slick are dynamic. Both move around from day to day. The present location of the oil is identified daily through analysis of satellite imagery, observer overflights with helicopters and fixed wing aircraft, as well as advanced sensing technology on aircraft.
• Satellite imagery on May 17 indicates that the main bulk of the oil is dozens of miles away from the Loop Current, but that a tendril of light oil has been transported down close to the Loop Current. NOAA is conducting aerial observations today to determine with certainty whether oil has actually entered the Loop Current.
• NOAA conducts aerial observations every day to observe the plume from the air. These observations help develop NOAA’s trajectory models. Additionally today, the NOAA P-3 research aircraft will be dropping sensors to get better observations of the location of the loop current.
• The proximity of the South East tendril of oil to the Loop Current indicates that oil is increasingly likely to become entrained. When that occurs, oil could reach the Florida Straits in 8 to 10 days.
• Once entrained in the Loop Current, persistent onshore winds and/or the oil getting into an eddy on the edge of the Loop Current would be required to bring the oil onto the Florida shoreline.
• During this transit time, the natural processes of evaporation and dispersion would reduce the oil volume significantly. The remaining oil could be composed of long strips of emulsified oil and mostly as “tar balls”.
• The Loop Current is dynamic. At present, at the top end of the Loop Current there is a counter-clockwise eddy. Thus, some amount of any oil drawn into the Loop Current would likely remain in the eddy, heading to the northeast, and some would enter the main Loop Current, where it might eventually head to the Florida Strait.
• NOAA will continue to closely monitor this portion of the oil over the next days to weeks. I emphasize that the bulk of the oil remains well to the north of the Loop Current, near the well site and towards the west and northwest from there. Currently only the southern tip of the slick, consisting of sheens and potentially unobserved tarballs, is in the vicinity of the Loop Current.
• In response to the possibility oil entering the Loop Current, NOAA is acting with an abundance of caution and announcing an expansion of the fisheries closure area at 12 PM today. The revised closure will be effective at 6 PM this evening and is just over 45,000 square miles, or just about 19% of federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Details will be available on our homepage, noaa.gov.
• The expansion of the fishing closure is one part of a pro-active stance that NOAA is taking to ensure public and seafood safety. To ensure the safety of seafood harvested from the Gulf of Mexico, NOAA is working with the Food and Drug Administration to re-align its assets to implement a broad-scaled seafood sampling plan. The plan includes sampling seafood from inside and outside of the closure area, as well as dockside and market-based sampling. Also, NOAA is increasing its monitoring of the biological implications of oil and dispersants.
• State Governors and International colleagues have been alerted of the closure area expansion and the joint NOAA/FDA seafood sampling plan.
• We have also created a virtual Incident Command Center in St. Petersburg, Fla., that is ready to engage quickly when needed.
• There is no indication yet whether the oil might impact another country. We will notify and consult other nations as appropriate. The United States and Mexico are currently sharing information under the MEXUS Plan, a bilateral agreement on pollution incidents in coastal waters.
• NOAA is engaging experts within and outside government to develop long-term oil movement forecasts. Predicting where the oil may go if the release continues allows for adequate response measures and resources to be placed in appropriate locations.